A new study from Carnegie China, the China Program of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, finds that China has overtaken the United States as the primary workplace for the world’s elite artificial intelligence researchers, marking a major shift in the global AI talent landscape.
The research uses authors of papers accepted at NeurIPS, one of the most prestigious conferences in machine learning and AI, as its sample of top-tier AI researchers. In 2022, 27.1% of these elite researchers were based in China, versus 46.4% in the United States. By 2025, China’s share surged to 40.6%, while the U.S. share declined to 34.2%, reversing the two countries’ positions within three years.
The report attributes the shift to two core drivers. First, China’s booming AI industry has created abundant high-quality research roles at domestic firms and research institutions, encouraging graduates to build careers locally. Second, tightened U.S. visa rules for Chinese STEM students have deterred many Chinese science and engineering graduates from pursuing careers in the U.S. Among AI researchers who completed their undergraduate studies in China, 69% chose to work in China in 2025, up from 57% in 2022.
The study draws a critical distinction between where researchers work and where they were educated or born. China remains the world’s largest source of elite AI talent; researchers of Chinese origin accounted for 57% of the global sample in 2025. Even so, the U.S. continues to attract a net inflow of global AI talent, registering a net gain of 2,145 researchers in 2025, while China recorded a net loss of 1,729 researchers. The reversal stems mostly from new Chinese-trained talent opting to stay home, rather than a mass exodus of senior AI researchers already established in the United States.
The report also identifies structural weaknesses in China’s AI ecosystem. Fewer than 15% of AI researchers at Chinese universities maintain industry ties, compared with 37% at peer U.S. institutions such as Carnegie Mellon University, pointing to gaps in translating academic research into commercial applications.
Market analysts note that this geographic redistribution of talent will reshape global AI competition. While the U.S. retains advantages in frontier foundation models and advanced computing chips, China continues to build competitive strength in AI talent volume, real-world use cases and industrial deployment. The report cautions that raw headcount does not directly translate into technological breakthroughs; long-term AI leadership will hinge on how efficiently research can be commercialised.