LONDON, Sept 28, 2026 – Global copper markets are shifting from a demand‑driven boom into a severe supply‑liquidity crisis, with freely‑traded physical inventories falling to historic lows and sparking what Deutsche Bank calls a “historic scramble for metal”.
According to the bank’s latest commodities research, LME three‑month copper may hit $22,050 per metric ton by Q2‑2027, representing an increase of more than 50% from current levels.
The analysis was authored by Daniel Ghali, Head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank. LME copper recently traded around $14,743.64/ton. Deutsche Bank projects the annual average copper price at $20,900/ton for 2027, before easing to $18,500/ton in 2028 as steep prices curb consumption and encourage material substitution.
A primary driver behind tightening liquidity is that large volumes of above‑ground copper are being locked‑up and removed from open‑market circulation. By the end of 2026, copper held by the United States and major Asian consuming regions is projected to account for 71% of total global above‑ground stocks. Even without US import tariffs on refined copper taking effect, persistent CME‑LME price premiums will keep most of those stocks inside US warehouses rather than flowing back to global markets.
The market’s safety buffer has shrunk dramatically. Ghali notes the system can no longer comfortably absorb three overlapping stresses: ongoing US stockpiling, aggressive restocking across Asia, or any meaningful disruption to global smelter operations. Should existing stock‑hoarding patterns persist, unrestricted, deliverable inventories worldwide could near zero by the end of 2028. In that scenario, only substantially higher prices would ration demand — prompting some end‑users to cut copper usage or switch to alternatives such as aluminium and prevent physical stock exhaustion.
Structural demand remains robust from the energy‑transition complex: electric vehicles, solar‑wind installations, battery storage, high‑voltage power grids and AI‑data‑centre hardware keep generating fresh copper demand. On the supply side, new major copper‑mine projects face long permitting and construction timelines, limiting near‑term output growth.
Quoting the report: “The world’s copper exchanges are witnessing a historic scramble for metal. The copper market is transitioning from a demand‑led boom to a liquidity crisis.”
Aluminium is viewed as the main substitute metal, albeit with inferior conductivity. Deutsche Bank assesses today’s price levels are still not high‑enough to trigger large‑scale industrial substitution; only at much elevated copper prices will manufacturers broadly redesign components and switch materials.
Disclaimer: This article reflects Deutsche Bank’s research views only. Commodity prices are subject to USD movements, geopolitics, mine‑outages, government policies and technological change. Forecasts shall not be construed as investment advice.